Illinois heads to Happy Valley as the 19th ranked team in the country (and a 19 point underdog…more on this later) with a ton of momentum. Illinois has two top 25 wins on their resume and a win at Nebraska in the loudest environment I have ever been in last week. Illinois faces a whole new challenge in what is potentially even more daunting of a place to play. Penn State is ranked 9th in the country and loaded with talent on both sides of the ball.
Penn State on Offense
Penn State is relying on two 5* running backs in Nicholas Singleton (#10) and Kaytron Allen (#13) and a 5* QB in Drew Allar (#15). Singleton is a homerun hitter with elite speed to go with his 225 pound frame. Allen is a bulldozer at 230 pounds but isn’t slow by any stretch and both are effective pass catchers out of the backfield but Singleton is the bigger threat. Allar is a prototypical QB, 6’5” 230lb, with a rocket arm. Allar is highly efficient with the football, that is probably his biggest strength. As a red shirt Freshman, Allar led the B1G in passing TDs with 25 with only 2 ints. In his career he has 37 TD passes and 3 total interceptions. That is an incredible ratio for a young QB. Allar also has the pleasure of working with Andy Koltenicki as his offensive coordinator this year. The same OC who was at Kansas a year ago when the Jayhawks torched the Illini. Penn St. like always has talent at the WR spot most notably speedster Omari Evans (#5) but the biggest threat so far this year is TE Tyler Warren. Warren is widely considered the 2nd best Draft prospect among TEs in the 2025 NFL Draft. Warren has 16 receptions for 226 yards and 2 TDs this season, has rushed the ball 1x and thrown a TD pass as well.
Penn State on Defense
The Nittany Lions are led by Defensive End Abdul Carter (#11). Carter is an NFL ready DE that loves to rush the passer. He was arguably Penn State’s best defensive player a year ago against Illinois. Dani Dennis-Sutton (#33) is the other rush end for PSU and is a solid player but not on Carter’s level. Kobe King (#41) leads the linebacking corps. King is a good college football player but isn’t that typical PSU LB we’ve become accustomed to. The secondary was led by Safety Kevin Winston Jr. but he is out for the foreseeable future with an injury. PSU’s secondary can be had as former Indiana QB Connor Bazelak torched them for 254 yards and 2 TDs in the game against Bowling Green earlier this year.
Vegas Line and Kevin’s take
This is what is commonly known in gambling circles as a trap line. Go ahead ask any of your friends about what they think in this game. A 4-0 ranked team with 2 P4 wins playing an untested Penn State team on the road and getting 19 points… The average College Football fan is running to the window to bet on Illinois. That’s a bad thing. The average CFB gambler is who Vegas loves taking money from. The joes as it’s known in gambling circles will normally account for 50% of the money bet with 90% of the bettors. The pros account for 50% of the money and 10% of the bettors and they win at a higher percentage. The pros love Penn State here. The line opened at 17.5 and as I type this it has moved to 19.5. That line will come down on Saturday as the Joes money comes in.
How Illinois can cover…maybe win!!!
That being said there are somethings that make me think Vegas is off on this one. Altmyer has a PFF (Pro Football Focus) grade of 93 when he has time. That is exceptional! Illinois hasn’t been great at protecting Altmyer but the Illini do rank 35th in pass pro. Illinois has allowed 7 sacks this year which puts them right in the middle in CFB but considering two games against P4 teams it’s fairly decent. With that in mind, PSU has 4 total sacks this year, 104th in sacks per game including 0 against BGSU. BGSU has done a good job protecting Bazelak this year, but WVU is 96th in sacks allowed per game and PSU only got there twice in their game to open the season. Kent St. is a dumpster fire but they are 80th, slightly worse than Illinois. All that to say if Illinoi can keep Altmyer upright they will score. One thing BGSU did well against PSU was use their TE, Harold Fannin Jr. (Jr. TE that I say his name because he’s either getting drafted or a ton of money in the portal, he’s a dude!). Illinois should incorporate Arkin more in this game and coming off his best game against NEB that is a positive sign.
On the other side of the ball PSU has done an incredible job of keeping Allar upright allowing 3 sacks in 3 games, however 2 of the 3 came against BGSU, zero by WVU. While Bowling Green ranks just behind Illinois in Sacks per game, 5 of their 8 total came against Fordham. Illinois had 6 against NEB. The key when PSU has the ball will be very similar to NEB, can the Illini contain the run game enough to put Allar in 2nd and long or 3rd and long and get after the QB with some of their NASCAR packages (Briggs, Jacas, Coleman and Bryant all on the field at the same time). PSU might have the two best backs Illinos will face all season in Singleton and Allen but the performance against Nebraska should give Illinois hope.
I think Illinois will stay within the number for these reasons along with having experience in a hostile environment already this year and not flinching. Another lean I really like is the over here as I think both teams will be able to score. The current total is 47.5, I see this as being a higher scoring affair unless the remnants of Hurricane Helene bring a lot of rain.
I don’t think Illinois wins Saturday night but I do like the Illini to Cover 31-23.
I-L-L!