The 19th ranked undefeated Fighting Illini rolled into Happy Valley on Saturday night to play the 9th ranked Nittany Lions with dreams and aspirations of winning the B1G, making the first ever 12 team College Football Playoff and winning a National Championship (funny right? I guarantee that is the goal of the players and staff). The Illini fought hard for 60 minutes but couldn’t overcome the playmakers for Penn State on the Defensive Line and the Offensive Backfield in a 21-7 loss. So, the Illini leave Pennsylvania with their dreams and aspirations of winning the B1G and making the CFP completely…. INTACT!
In this first season of the College Football Playoff and 18 team B1G conference losses are looked at a lot differently. Granted Illinois has a better chance of making the Playoff than winning the B1G, due to the schedule, both remain on the table. The schedule for Illinois is considerably more difficult than the other conference upstarts in Indiana and Rutgers as well as the offensively challenged Hawkeyes of Iowa. That schedule may prevent Illinois from winning the conference, but it could lend a hand in making the CFP. In a Fairytale world where Illinois goes 10-2 and Indiana goes 11-1, my guess is that Illinois would be the choice over Indiana due to schedule strength. Let me pump the breaks here, I am not saying this would happen, I am saying nothing that was on the table for the goals of the season outside of an undefeated season are now off that proverbial table.
What we learned…
Illinois can compete. Happy Valley (2nd biggest stadium in CFB) at night is one of the toughest places to play in College Football and Illinois more than held its own. Illinois trailed by 7 with less than 2 minutes to go as the bend but don’t break defense did an amazing job in limiting big plays (15+ yard rushes and 20+ yard passes) from a team that had lived by the by the big play in the first three games at a 30% rate. Penn State had one big play the entire game, a 20-yard pass on the first offensive play of the game for PSU. Throughout the course of the game, it was clear that Illinois had better players in the WR room and the Secondary however football is won in the trenches and that was a clear advantage for PSU. PSU’s Defensive and Offensive Lines controlled the game that resulted in 7 sacks of Altmyer and two backs over 90 yards with a 5.4 ypc average. That being said, Illinois had chances to win this game, the final possession of the first half had Illinois with a 1st and Goal from the 2-yard line that resulted in no points because of a bad snap, an intentional grounding penalty, a sack, and 2 false starts leading to a 45-yard FG at the end of the 2nd QTR. Any points there, the Illini take a lead into Halftime with all the momentum. Instead, momentum was completely thwarted and shifted into PSU’s locker room. We learned Illinois can compete at this level and they have players who can make plays but to win in environments like this and at Oregon (10/26) that Illinois cannot make as many mistakes (9 penalties for 60 yards and losing the turnover battle 2-0) as they did Saturday Night.
What it means…
The Illini are smack dab in the middle of the toughest part of their schedule. The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time. After the bye week the Illini take on a reeling Purdue team (fired their OC this week) where they should break the Purdue jinx (4-15 in their last 19, including 4 in a row and 1-7 in the last 8!). The Illini follow that up with the Rededication of Memorial Stadium (10/19) game against a Michigan team that doesn’t seem quite as insurmountable. Michigan flat out cannot pass (129th out of 134 team in passing yards per game) and their once insurmountable defense has yielded 31 points, 24 points and 24 points in their 3 toughest games. Michigan allowed 156 points in 15 games a year ago, they have allowed 107 points in 5 games this season. For context Illinois has allowed 71 points in 5 games this season. That shakes up as a much more winnable game than it appeared a month ago. The last game in the murders row part of the schedule is at Oregon to face another top 10 team on the road. If Illinois can find a way to go 2-1 in these three games, they finish the season with 4 games that all fall in the Illinois favored or a slight underdog (@Rutgers). The Illini finish with a home game vs Minnesota (2-3), a bye week, home vs Michigan State (3-2), @ Rutgers (4-0) and finishing out @ Northwestern (2-2) at Wrigley Field (2010 anyone?). Illinois could finish that stretch 3-1 and have their first 9-win season since 2007. If Illinois goes 2-1 and 4-0 a 10-2 season would be the first 10-win season and give the Illini a great shot at the College Football Playoff. When you walk through this it’s not absurd to think Illinois could make the Playoff in spite of the loss Saturday Night. Crazy to think huh?
All in all, this is a good team, get your butts in the seats folks and sell out Memorial Stadium the rest of the way!
I-L-L